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1.
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.12.09.21267548

ABSTRACT

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a known complication of COVID-19 and is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Unbiased proteomics using longitudinally collected biological specimens can lead to improved risk stratification and discover pathophysiological mechanisms. Using longitudinal measurements of ~4000 plasma proteins in two cohorts of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we discovered and validated markers of COVID-associated AKI (stage 2 or 3) and long-term kidney dysfunction. In the discovery cohort (N= 437), we identified 413 upregulated and 40 downregulated proteins associated with COVID-AKI (adjusted p <0.05). Of these, 62 proteins were validated in an external cohort (p <0.05, N =261). We demonstrate that COVID-AKI is associated with increased markers of tubular injury (NGAL) and myocardial injury. Using estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) measurements taken after discharge, we also find that 25 of the 62 AKI-associated proteins are significantly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR (adjusted p <0.05). Proteins most strongly associated with decreased post-discharge eGFR included desmocollin-2, trefoil factor 3, transmembrane emp24 domain-containing protein 10, and cystatin-C indicating tubular dysfunction and injury. Using longitudinal clinical and proteomic data, our results suggest that while both acute and long-term COVID-associated kidney dysfunction are associated with markers of tubular dysfunction, AKI is driven by a largely multifactorial process involving hemodynamic instability and myocardial damage.


Subject(s)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome , Kidney Diseases , Renal Tubular Transport, Inborn Errors , Acute Kidney Injury , COVID-19 , Fanconi Syndrome , Cardiomyopathies
2.
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.10.04.21264434

ABSTRACT

Two years into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the post-acute sequelae of infection are compounding the global health crisis. Often debilitating, these sequelae are clinically heterogeneous and of unknown molecular etiology. Here, a transcriptome-wide investigation of this new condition was performed in a large cohort of acutely infected patients followed clinically into the post-acute period. Gene expression signatures of post-acute sequelae were already present in whole blood during the acute phase of infection, with both innate and adaptive immune cells involved. Plasma cells stood out as driving at least two distinct clusters of sequelae, one largely dependent on circulating antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the other antibody-independent. Altogether, multiple etiologies of post-acute sequelae were found concomitant with SARS-CoV-2 infection, directly linking the emergence of these sequelae with the host response to the virus.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Infections
3.
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.07.25.21261105

ABSTRACT

Federated learning is a technique for training predictive models without sharing patient-level data, thus maintaining data security while allowing inter-institutional collaboration. We used federated learning to predict acute kidney injury within three and seven days of admission, using demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, and laboratory values, in 4029 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 at five sociodemographically diverse New York City hospitals, between March-October 2020. Prediction performance of federated models was generally higher than single-hospital models and was comparable to pooled-data models. In the first use-case in kidney disease, federated learning improved prediction of a common complication of COVID-19, while preserving data privacy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Kidney Diseases , Acute Kidney Injury
4.
arxiv; 2021.
Preprint in English | PREPRINT-ARXIV | ID: ppzbmed-2104.02932v1

ABSTRACT

Electronic Health Record (EHR) data has been of tremendous utility in Artificial Intelligence (AI) for healthcare such as predicting future clinical events. These tasks, however, often come with many challenges when using classical machine learning models due to a myriad of factors including class imbalance and data heterogeneity (i.e., the complex intra-class variances). To address some of these research gaps, this paper leverages the exciting contrastive learning framework and proposes a novel contrastive regularized clinical classification model. The contrastive loss is found to substantially augment EHR-based prediction: it effectively characterizes the similar/dissimilar patterns (by its "push-and-pull" form), meanwhile mitigating the highly skewed class distribution by learning more balanced feature spaces (as also echoed by recent findings). In particular, when naively exporting the contrastive learning to the EHR data, one hurdle is in generating positive samples, since EHR data is not as amendable to data augmentation as image data. To this end, we have introduced two unique positive sampling strategies specifically tailored for EHR data: a feature-based positive sampling that exploits the feature space neighborhood structure to reinforce the feature learning; and an attribute-based positive sampling that incorporates pre-generated patient similarity metrics to define the sample proximity. Both sampling approaches are designed with an awareness of unique high intra-class variance in EHR data. Our overall framework yields highly competitive experimental results in predicting the mortality risk on real-world COVID-19 EHR data with a total of 5,712 patients admitted to a large, urban health system. Specifically, our method reaches a high AUROC prediction score of 0.959, which outperforms other baselines and alternatives: cross-entropy(0.873) and focal loss(0.931).


Subject(s)
COVID-19
5.
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.01.18.21249414

ABSTRACT

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is among the most common complications of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Throughout 2020 pandemic, the clinical approach to COVID-19 has progressively improved, but it is unknown how these changes have affected AKI incidence and severity. In this retrospective analysis, we report the trend over time of COVID-19 associated AKI and need of renal replacement therapy in a large health system in New York City, the first COVID-19 epicenter in United States.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Acute Kidney Injury
6.
arxiv; 2021.
Preprint in English | PREPRINT-ARXIV | ID: ppzbmed-2101.04013v1

ABSTRACT

Machine Learning (ML) models typically require large-scale, balanced training data to be robust, generalizable, and effective in the context of healthcare. This has been a major issue for developing ML models for the coronavirus-disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic where data is highly imbalanced, particularly within electronic health records (EHR) research. Conventional approaches in ML use cross-entropy loss (CEL) that often suffers from poor margin classification. For the first time, we show that contrastive loss (CL) improves the performance of CEL especially for imbalanced EHR data and the related COVID-19 analyses. This study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. We use EHR data from five hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) to predict mortality, intubation, and intensive care unit (ICU) transfer in hospitalized COVID-19 patients over 24 and 48 hour time windows. We train two sequential architectures (RNN and RETAIN) using two loss functions (CEL and CL). Models are tested on full sample data set which contain all available data and restricted data set to emulate higher class imbalance.CL models consistently outperform CEL models with the restricted data set on these tasks with differences ranging from 0.04 to 0.15 for AUPRC and 0.05 to 0.1 for AUROC. For the restricted sample, only the CL model maintains proper clustering and is able to identify important features, such as pulse oximetry. CL outperforms CEL in instances of severe class imbalance, on three EHR outcomes with respect to three performance metrics: predictive power, clustering, and feature importance. We believe that the developed CL framework can be expanded and used for EHR ML work in general.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections , Extravasation of Diagnostic and Therapeutic Materials
7.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.11.06.20226803

ABSTRACT

Background: Changes in autonomic nervous system function, characterized by heart rate variability (HRV), have been associated with and observed prior to the clinical identification of infection. We performed an evaluation of this metric collected by wearable devices, to identify and predict Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its related symptoms. Methods: Health care workers in the Mount Sinai Health System were prospectively followed in an ongoing observational study using the custom Warrior Watch Study App which was downloaded to their smartphones. Participants wore an Apple Watch for the duration of the study measuring HRV throughout the follow up period. Surveys assessing infection and symptom related questions were obtained daily. Findings: Using a mixed-effect COSINOR model the mean amplitude of the circadian pattern of the standard deviation of the interbeat interval of normal sinus beats (SDNN), a HRV metric, differed between subjects with and without COVID-19 (p=0.006). The mean amplitude of this circadian pattern differed between individuals during the 7 days before and the 7 days after a COVID-19 diagnosis compared to this metric during uninfected time periods (p=0.01). Significant changes in the mean MESOR and amplitude of the circadian pattern of the SDNN was observed between the first day of reporting a COVID-19 related symptom compared to all other symptom free days (p=0.01). Interpretation: Longitudinally collected HRV metrics from a commonly worn commercial wearable device (Apple Watch) can identify the diagnosis of COVID-19 and COVID-19 related symptoms. Prior to the diagnosis of COVID-19 by nasal PCR, significant changes in HRV were observed demonstrating its predictive ability to identify COVID-19 infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19
8.
researchsquare; 2020.
Preprint in English | PREPRINT-RESEARCHSQUARE | ID: ppzbmed-10.21203.rs.3.rs-100914.v2

ABSTRACT

Epidemiological studies suggest that men exhibit a higher mortality rate to COVID-19 than women, yet the underlying biology is largely unknown. Here, we seek to delineate sex differences in the gene expression of viral entry proteins ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and host transcriptional responses to SARS-CoV-2 through large-scale analysis of genomic and clinical data.  We first compiled 220,000 human gene expression profiles from three databases and completed the meta-information through machine learning and manual annotation. Large scale analysis of these profiles indicated that male samples show higher expression levels of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 than female samples, especially in the older group (>60 years) and in the kidney. Subsequent analysis of 6,031 COVID-19 patients at Mount Sinai Health System revealed that men have significantly higher creatinine levels, an indicator of impaired kidney function. Further analysis of 782 COVID-19 patient gene expression profiles taken from upper airway and blood suggested men and women present distinct expression changes. Computational deconvolution analysis of these profiles revealed male COVID-19 patients have enriched kidney-specific mesangial cells in blood compared to healthy patients. Together, this study suggests biological differences in the kidney between sexes may contribute to sex disparity in COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Kidney Diseases
9.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.09.07.20187666

ABSTRACT

Given that gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms are a prominent extrapulmonary manifestation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we investigated the impact of GI infection on disease pathogenesis in three large cohorts of patients in the United States and Europe. Unexpectedly, we observed that GI involvement was associated with a significant reduction in disease severity and mortality, with an accompanying reduction in key inflammatory proteins including IL-6, CXCL8, IL-17A and CCL28 in circulation. In a fourth cohort of COVID-19 patients in which GI biopsies were obtained, we identified severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) within small intestinal enterocytes for the first time in vivo but failed to obtain culturable virus. High dimensional analyses of GI tissues confirmed low levels of cellular inflammation in the GI lamina propria and an active downregulation of key inflammatory genes including IFNG, CXCL8, CXCL2 and IL1B among others. These data draw attention to organ-level heterogeneity in disease pathogenesis and highlight the role of the GI tract in attenuating SARS-CoV-2-associated inflammation with related mortality benefit.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , COVID-19 , Inflammation , Gastrointestinal Diseases
10.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.08.29.20182899

ABSTRACT

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) presents with fever, inflammation and multiple organ involvement in individuals under 21 years following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. To identify genes, pathways and cell types driving MIS-C, we sequenced the blood transcriptomes of MIS-C cases, pediatric cases of coronavirus disease 2019, and healthy controls. We define a MIS-C transcriptional signature partially shared with the transcriptional response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and with the signature of Kawasaki disease, a clinically similar condition. By projecting the MIS-C signature onto a co-expression network, we identified disease gene modules and found genes downregulated in MIS-C clustered in a module enriched for the transcriptional signatures of exhausted CD8+ T-cells and CD56dimCD57+ NK cells. Bayesian network analyses revealed nine key regulators of this module, including TBX21, a central coordinator of exhausted CD8+ T-cell differentiation. Together, these findings suggest dysregulated cytotoxic lymphocyte response to SARS-Cov-2 infection in MIS-C.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndromes , Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome , Fever , COVID-19 , Inflammation
11.
biorxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | bioRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.08.31.276725

ABSTRACT

Infections with SARS-CoV-2 lead to mild to severe coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) with systemic symptoms. Although the viral infection originates in the respiratory system, it is unclear how the virus can overcome the alveolar barrier, which is observed in severe COVID-19 disease courses. To elucidate the viral effects on the barrier integrity and immune reactions, we used mono-cell culture systems and a complex human alveolus-on-a-chip model composed of epithelial, endothelial, and mononuclear cells. Our data show that SARS-CoV-2 efficiently infected epithelial cells with high viral loads and inflammatory response, including the interferon expression. By contrast, the adjacent endothelial layer was no infected and did neither show productive virus replication or interferon release. With prolonged infection, both cell types are damaged, and the barrier function is deteriorated, allowing the viral particles to overbear. In our study, we demonstrate that although SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on the epithelium for efficient replication, the neighboring endothelial cells are affected, e.g., by the epithelial cytokine release, which results in the damage of the alveolar barrier function and viral dissemination.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adenocarcinoma, Bronchiolo-Alveolar
12.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.08.11.20172809

ABSTRACT

Machine learning (ML) models require large datasets which may be siloed across different healthcare institutions. Using federated learning, a ML technique that avoids locally aggregating raw clinical data across multiple institutions, we predict mortality within seven days in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Patient data was collected from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) from five hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS). Logistic Regression with L1 regularization (LASSO) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models were trained using local data at each site, a pooled model with combined data from all five sites, and a federated model that only shared parameters with a central aggregator. Both the federated LASSO and federated MLP models performed better than their local model counterparts at four hospitals. The federated MLP model also outperformed the federated LASSO model at all hospitals. Federated learning shows promise in COVID-19 EHR data to develop robust predictive models without compromising patient privacy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19
13.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.06.11.20128934

ABSTRACT

The need for reliable and widely available SARS-CoV-2 testing is well recognized, but it will be equally necessary to develop quantitative methods that determine viral load in order to guide patient triage and medical decision making. We are the first to report that SARS-CoV-2 viral load at the time of presentation is an independent predictor of COVID-19 mortality in a large patient cohort (n=1,145). Viral loads should be used to identify higher-risk patients that may require more aggressive care and should be included as a key biomarker in the development of predictive algorithms.


Subject(s)
COVID-19
14.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.06.05.20123372

ABSTRACT

We used multi-agents simulations to estimate the testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infections sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Depending on the mitigation policies in place, a daily capacity between 0.7 to 3.6 tests per thousand was required to contain the disease. However, if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of infections kept growing exponentially, irrespective of any testing capacity. Under these conditions, the population's geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment.


Subject(s)
COVID-19
15.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.05.17.20104604

ABSTRACT

Background: Data on patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who return to hospital after discharge are scarce. Characterization of these patients may inform post-hospitalization care. Methods and Findings: Retrospective cohort study of patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 discharged alive from five hospitals in New York City with index hospitalization between February 27th-April 12th, 2020, with follow-up of [≥]14 days. Significance was defined as P<0.05 after multiplying P by 125 study-wide comparisons. Of 2,864 discharged patients, 103 (3.6%) returned for emergency care after a median of 4.5 days, with 56 requiring inpatient readmission. The most common reason for return was respiratory distress (50%). Compared to patients who did not return, among those who returned there was a higher proportion of COPD (6.8% vs 2.9%) and hypertension (36% vs 22.1%). Patients who returned also had a shorter median length of stay (LOS) during index hospitalization (4.5 [2.9,9.1] vs. 6.7 [3.5, 11.5] days; Padjusted=0.006), and were less likely to have required intensive care on index hospitalization (5.8% vs 19%; Padjusted=0.001). A trend towards association between absence of in-hospital anticoagulation on index admission and return to hospital was also observed (20.9% vs 30.9%, Padjusted=0.064). On readmission, rates of intensive care and death were 5.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Conclusions: Return to hospital after admission for COVID-19 was infrequent within 14 days of discharge. The most common cause for return was respiratory distress. Patients who returned had higher proportion of COPD and hypertension with shorter LOS on index hospitalization, and a trend towards lower rates of in-hospital treatment-dose anticoagulation. Future studies should focus on whether these comorbid conditions, longer LOS and anticoagulation are associated with reduced readmissions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Death , Hypertension , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive
16.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.05.05.20092452

ABSTRACT

Understanding the pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for therapeutics and public health intervention strategies. Viral-host interactions can guide discovery of regulators of disease outcomes, and protein structure function analysis points to several immune pathways, including complement and coagulation, as targets of the coronavirus proteome. To determine if conditions associated with dysregulation of the complement or coagulation systems impact adverse clinical outcomes, we performed a retrospective observational study of 11,116 patients who presented with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found that history of macular degeneration (a proxy for complement activation disorders) and history of coagulation disorders (thrombocytopenia, thrombosis, and hemorrhage) are risk factors for morbidity and mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients - effects that could not be explained by age, sex, or history of smoking. Further, transcriptional profiling of nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs from 650 control and SARS-CoV-2 infected patients demonstrated that in addition to innate Type-I interferon and IL-6 dependent inflammatory immune responses, infection results in robust engagement and activation of the complement and coagulation pathways. Finally, we conducted a candidate driven genetic association study of severe SARS-CoV-2 disease. Among the findings, our scan identified putative complement and coagulation associated loci including missense, eQTL and sQTL variants of critical regulators of the complement and coagulation cascades. In addition to providing evidence that complement function modulates SARS-CoV-2 infection outcome, the data point to putative transcriptional genetic markers of susceptibility. The results highlight the value of using a multi-modal analytical approach, combining molecular information from virus protein structure-function analysis with clinical informatics, transcriptomics, and genomics to reveal determinants and predictors of immunity, susceptibility, and clinical outcome associated with infection.


Subject(s)
Hemorrhage , Thrombocytopenia , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome , Immunologic Deficiency Syndromes , Thrombosis , Blood Coagulation Disorders, Inherited , Macular Degeneration , COVID-19
17.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.05.04.20090944

ABSTRACT

Importance: Preliminary reports indicate that acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 patients and is associated with worse outcomes. AKI in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States is not well-described. Objective: To provide information about frequency, outcomes and recovery associated with AKI and dialysis in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Design: Observational, retrospective study. Setting: Admitted to hospital between February 27 and April 15, 2020. Participants: Patients aged [≥]18 years with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 Exposures: AKI (peak serum creatinine increase of 0.3 mg/dL or 50% above baseline). Main Outcomes and Measures: Frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with mortality. We also trained and tested a machine learning model for predicting dialysis requirement with independent validation. Results: A total of 3,235 hospitalized patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. AKI occurred in 1406 (46%) patients overall and 280 (20%) with AKI required renal replacement therapy. The incidence of AKI (admission plus new cases) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit was 68% (553 of 815). In the entire cohort, the proportion with stages 1, 2, and 3 AKI were 35%, 20%, 45%, respectively. In those needing intensive care, the respective proportions were 20%, 17%, 63%, and 34% received acute renal replacement therapy. Independent predictors of severe AKI were chronic kidney disease, systolic blood pressure, and potassium at baseline. In-hospital mortality in patients with AKI was 41% overall and 52% in intensive care. The aOR for mortality associated with AKI was 9.6 (95% CI 7.4-12.3) overall and 20.9 (95% CI 11.7-37.3) in patients receiving intensive care. 56% of patients with AKI who were discharged alive recovered kidney function back to baseline. The area under the curve (AUC) for the machine learned predictive model using baseline features for dialysis requirement was 0.79 in a validation test. Conclusions and Relevance: AKI is common in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, associated with worse mortality, and the majority of patients that survive do not recover kidney function. A machine-learned model using admission features had good performance for dialysis prediction and could be used for resource allocation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic , Coronavirus Infections , Acute Kidney Injury
18.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.04.28.20075788

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a novel threat to human health worldwide. There is an urgent need to understand patient characteristics of having COVID-19 disease and evaluate markers of critical illness and mortality. Objective: To assess association of clinical features on patient outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this observational case series, patient-level data were extracted from electronic medical records for 28,336 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 at the Mount Sinai Health System from 2/24/ to 4/15/2020, including 6,158 laboratory-confirmed cases. Exposures: Confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis by RT-PCR assay from nasal swabs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Effects of race on positive test rates and mortality were assessed. Among positive cases admitted to the hospital (N = 3,273), effects of patient demographics, hospital site and unit, social behavior, vital signs, lab results, and disease comorbidities on discharge and death were estimated. Results: Hispanics (29%) and African Americans (25%) had disproportionately high positive case rates relative to population base rates (p<2e-16); however, no differences in mortality rates were observed in the hospital. Outcome differed significantly between hospitals (Gray's T=248.9; p<2e-16), reflecting differences in average baseline age and underlying comorbidities. Significant risk factors for mortality included age (HR=1.05 [95% CI, 1.04-1.06]; p=1.15e-32), oxygen saturation (HR=0.985 [95% CI, 0.982-0.988]; p=1.57e-17), care in ICU areas (HR=1.58 [95% CI, 1.29-1.92]; p=7.81e-6), and elevated creatinine (HR=1.75 [95% CI, 1.47-2.10]; p=7.48e-10), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (HR=1.002, [95% CI 1.001-1.003]; p=8.86e-5) and body-mass index (BMI) (HR=1.02, [95% CI 1.00-1.03]; p=1.09e-2). Asthma (HR=0.78 [95% CI, 0.62-0.98]; p=0.031) was significantly associated with increased length of hospital stay, but not mortality. Deceased patients were more likely to have elevated markers of inflammation. Baseline age, BMI, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, white blood cell (WBC) count, creatinine, and ALT were significant prognostic indicators of mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: While race was associated with higher risk of infection, we did not find a racial disparity in inpatient mortality suggesting that outcomes in a single tertiary care health system are comparable across races. We identified clinical features associated with reduced mortality and discharge. These findings could help to identify which COVID-19 patients are at greatest risk and evaluate the impact on survival.


Subject(s)
COVID-19
19.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.04.26.20073411

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has become the deadliest pandemic in modern history, reaching nearly every country worldwide and overwhelming healthcare institutions. As of April 20, there have been more than 2.4 million confirmed cases with over 160,000 deaths. Extreme case surges coupled with challenges in forecasting the clinical course of affected patients have necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods for achieving this are lacking. In this paper, we present a decision tree-based machine learning model trained on electronic health records from patients with confirmed COVID-19 at a single center within the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. We then externally validate our model by predicting the likelihood of critical event or death within various time intervals for patients after hospitalization at four other hospitals and achieve strong performance, notably predicting mortality at 1 week with an AUC-ROC of 0.84. Finally, we establish model interpretability by calculating SHAP scores to identify decisive features, including age, inflammatory markers (procalcitonin and LDH), and coagulation parameters (PT, PTT, D-Dimer). To our knowledge, this is one of the first models with external validation to both predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients with strong validation performance and identification of key contributors in outcome prediction that may assist clinicians in making effective patient management decisions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19
20.
medrxiv; 2020.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.04.20.20072702

ABSTRACT

Background: The degree of myocardial injury, reflected by troponin elevation, and associated outcomes among hospitalized patients with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in the US are unknown. Objectives: To describe the degree of myocardial injury and associated outcomes in a large hospitalized cohort with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Methods: Patients with COVID-19 admitted to one of five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals in New York City between February 27th and April 12th, 2020 with troponin-I (normal value <0.03ng/mL) measured within 24 hours of admission were included (n=2,736). Demographics, medical history, admission labs, and outcomes were captured from the hospital EHR. Results: The median age was 66.4 years, with 59.6% men. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) including coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure, was more prevalent in patients with higher troponin concentrations, as were hypertension and diabetes. A total of 506 (18.5%) patients died during hospitalization. Even small amounts of myocardial injury (e.g. troponin I 0.03-0.09ng/mL, n=455, 16.6%) were associated with death (adjusted HR: 1.77, 95% CI 1.39-2.26; P<0.001) while greater amounts (e.g. troponin I>0.09 ng/dL, n=530, 19.4%) were associated with more pronounced risk (adjusted HR 3.23, 95% CI 2.59-4.02). Conclusions: Myocardial injury is prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and is associated with higher risk of mortality. Patients with CVD are more likely to have myocardial injury than patients without CVD. Troponin elevation likely reflects non-ischemic or secondary myocardial injury.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Heart Failure , Cardiovascular Diseases , Diabetes Mellitus , Ischemia , Hypertension , Coronary Artery Disease , COVID-19 , Death , Cardiomyopathies , Atrial Fibrillation
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